Calibration
This is the doctrine's learning loop (§6): every dated UP/DOWN conviction call is graded against the realized price move 5 days later. Price history is still accumulating (it began when the quote tracker went live), so settled counts grow over the coming weeks. Read this before trusting — or retuning — the model's confidence.
Settled calls
121
Hit rate
55%
Open (in flight)
1
Horizon
5d
By confidence (surprise)
| Surprise | Settled | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 10 | 70% |
| MED | 104 | 51% |
| LOW | 7 | 100% |
Well-calibrated = HIGH ≥ MED ≥ LOW. If HIGH-surprise calls don't beat LOW, the model is over-reading loud headlines.
By direction
| Call | Settled | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| UP (conviction) | 74 | 49% |
| DOWN (conviction) | 47 | 66% |
Doctrine over-weights disconfirmation — watch whether DOWN calls actually pay off.
By thesis
| Ticker | Settled | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| BE | 18 | 72% |
| CEG | 4 | 25% |
| ETN | 2 | 0% |
| FCX | 18 | 61% |
| FSLR | 1 | 100% |
| GEV | 5 | 40% |
| IREN | 3 | 67% |
| ISRG | 6 | 67% |
| KEEL | 2 | 0% |
| LEU | 9 | 56% |
| MP | 30 | 57% |
| PWR | 5 | 60% |
| SCCO | 6 | 83% |
| TLN | 3 | 33% |
| VRT | 3 | 67% |
| VST | 1 | 0% |
| WULF | 5 | 0% |
Recent calls
| Date | Ticker | Call | Surprise | Move since | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | MP | DOWN | MED | +0.0% | open 0d |
| 2026-07-21 | MP | DOWN | MED | +26.4% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-21 | FCX | UP | MED | +9.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-20 | MP | DOWN | MED | +28.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-20 | SCCO | UP | MED | +9.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-20 | BE | DOWN | MED | +17.8% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-20 | BE | DOWN | MED | +17.8% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-20 | FCX | UP | MED | +16.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-20 | FCX | UP | MED | +16.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-20 | IREN | UP | MED | +11.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-18 | ISRG | DOWN | MED | +13.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-18 | ISRG | DOWN | MED | +13.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-17 | MP | UP | MED | +29.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-17 | MP | UP | MED | +29.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-17 | BE | UP | HIGH | +8.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-17 | BE | UP | MED | +8.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-17 | IREN | UP | LOW | +33.6% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-17 | KEEL | UP | MED | -4.6% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-16 | LEU | UP | MED | +16.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-16 | SCCO | UP | LOW | +7.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-16 | ISRG | DOWN | HIGH | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-16 | PWR | UP | LOW | +1.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-16 | FCX | UP | MED | +6.8% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-07-15 | TLN | UP | MED | -9.9% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-07-15 | TLN | UP | MED | -9.9% | ✗ miss |