Calibration

This is the doctrine's learning loop (§6): every dated UP/DOWN conviction call is graded against the realized price move 5 days later. Price history is still accumulating (it began when the quote tracker went live), so settled counts grow over the coming weeks. Read this before trusting — or retuning — the model's confidence.

Settled calls

257

Hit rate

46%

Open (in flight)

Horizon

By confidence (surprise)

Surprise	Settled	Hit rate
HIGH	11	9%
MED	224	47%
LOW	22	55%

Well-calibrated = HIGH ≥ MED ≥ LOW. If HIGH-surprise calls don't beat LOW, the model is over-reading loud headlines.

By direction

Call	Settled	Hit rate
UP (conviction)	114	39%
DOWN (conviction)	143	52%

Doctrine over-weights disconfirmation — watch whether DOWN calls actually pay off.

By thesis

Ticker	Settled	Hit rate
BE	36	42%
CEG	14	14%
CLF	5	0%
ETN	6	33%
FCX	24	58%
FSLR	6	67%
GEV	18	50%
IREN	13	69%
ISRG	4	100%
KEEL	7	43%
LEU	12	33%
MP	13	62%
PWR	6	83%
SCCO	17	53%
TLN	16	25%
VRT	28	43%
VST	14	36%
WULF	18	56%

Recent calls

Date	Ticker	Call	Surprise	Move since	Result
2026-10-23	CLF	DOWN	LOW	+0.0%	open 1d
2026-10-23	BE	DOWN	MED	+0.0%	open 1d
2026-10-23	CEG	DOWN	MED	+0.0%	open 1d
2026-10-22	PWR	UP	LOW	-1.1%	open 2d
2026-10-22	VRT	DOWN	MED	-0.6%	open 2d
2026-10-21	CLF	DOWN	MED	-0.9%	open 3d
2026-10-21	FSLR	UP	MED	-1.6%	open 3d
2026-10-20	MP	DOWN	MED	-1.9%	open 4d
2026-10-20	SCCO	DOWN	MED	-8.6%	open 4d
2026-10-20	BE	DOWN	MED	-13.2%	open 4d
2026-10-20	ETN	UP	MED	-4.2%	open 4d
2026-10-20	VRT	UP	MED	-4.5%	open 4d
2026-10-20	FCX	DOWN	MED	-5.4%	open 4d
2026-10-19	LEU	UP	MED	-7.0%	open 5d
2026-10-18	SCCO	DOWN	MED	-7.7%	✓ hit
2026-10-18	FCX	DOWN	MED	-6.3%	✓ hit
2026-10-18	WULF	DOWN	MED	-3.1%	✓ hit
2026-10-18	IREN	DOWN	LOW	-7.7%	✓ hit
2026-10-16	SCCO	DOWN	MED	-1.2%	✓ hit
2026-10-16	SCCO	DOWN	MED	-1.2%	✓ hit
2026-10-16	SCCO	DOWN	MED	-1.2%	✓ hit
2026-10-16	GEV	DOWN	LOW	+0.5%	✗ miss
2026-10-16	VRT	DOWN	MED	+2.8%	✗ miss
2026-10-16	WULF	DOWN	MED	+9.2%	✗ miss
2026-10-16	IREN	DOWN	MED	+3.1%	✗ miss