Calibration
This is the doctrine's learning loop (§6): every dated UP/DOWN conviction call is graded against the realized price move 5 days later. Price history is still accumulating (it began when the quote tracker went live), so settled counts grow over the coming weeks. Read this before trusting — or retuning — the model's confidence.
Settled calls
19
Hit rate
53%
Open (in flight)
11
Horizon
5d
By confidence (surprise)
| Surprise | Settled | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 4 | 75% |
| MED | 14 | 43% |
| LOW | 1 | 100% |
Well-calibrated = HIGH ≥ MED ≥ LOW. If HIGH-surprise calls don't beat LOW, the model is over-reading loud headlines.
By direction
| Call | Settled | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| UP (conviction) | 13 | 46% |
| DOWN (conviction) | 6 | 67% |
Doctrine over-weights disconfirmation — watch whether DOWN calls actually pay off.
By thesis
| Ticker | Settled | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| BE | 2 | 100% |
| CEG | 1 | 0% |
| ETN | 2 | 0% |
| FCX | 2 | 100% |
| ISRG | 2 | 100% |
| LEU | 1 | 100% |
| MP | 4 | 50% |
| PWR | 2 | 0% |
| SCCO | 0 | — |
| VRT | 2 | 50% |
| VST | 1 | 0% |
| WULF | 0 | — |
Recent calls
| Date | Ticker | Call | Surprise | Move since | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | MP | UP | MED | +0.0% | open 0d |
| 2026-06-08 | WULF | DOWN | MED | +0.0% | open 1d |
| 2026-06-05 | MP | DOWN | MED | +0.0% | open 4d |
| 2026-06-05 | MP | DOWN | MED | +0.0% | open 4d |
| 2026-06-05 | VRT | DOWN | MED | +0.0% | open 4d |
| 2026-06-05 | FCX | DOWN | MED | +0.0% | open 4d |
| 2026-06-04 | MP | DOWN | LOW | -9.6% | open 5d |
| 2026-06-03 | MP | DOWN | HIGH | -13.7% | open 6d |
| 2026-06-03 | SCCO | UP | MED | -12.0% | open 6d |
| 2026-06-03 | CEG | UP | MED | -4.6% | open 6d |
| 2026-06-02 | MP | UP | MED | -18.1% | open 7d |
| 2026-05-31 | FCX | DOWN | MED | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-31 | FCX | DOWN | LOW | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-29 | MP | DOWN | MED | +6.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-05-29 | MP | DOWN | MED | +6.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-05-28 | BE | UP | MED | +4.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-28 | BE | UP | MED | +4.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-27 | MP | UP | HIGH | +6.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-27 | ETN | UP | MED | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-05-27 | ISRG | DOWN | HIGH | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-27 | PWR | UP | MED | -6.3% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-05-27 | CEG | UP | HIGH | -8.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-05-27 | VRT | UP | MED | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-26 | LEU | UP | MED | +3.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-05-26 | MP | UP | MED | +3.4% | ✓ hit |