Thesis Board

Running posterior probability per thesis — click a ticker for the full thesis breakdown and live quote. P starts at the doc's prior and is nudged by each edition's thesis-impact call; disconfirming moves weigh heavier.

Thesis	Price	P	Δ today	Δ 7d	last driver
SCCO	$192.04 +2.14%	0.90	—	—	China's imported copper premium hit $100/t for the first time in over a year while South32 booked Chile winter output lo
Own-the-Bottleneck	—	0.88	—	—	TSMC raised full-year capex and sales guidance and says the AI boom runs at least three more years "defying skeptics" —
LEU	$184.12 +7.52%	0.87	—	—	Strengthening — two weeks of real federal money and regulatory tailwind (the $17.5B nuclear-supply-chain loan program, N
CEG	$278.20 +6.09%	0.86	—	—	PJM capacity auction cleared at its price cap again — the exact opposite of CEG's break-trigger (two auctions <$200/MW-d
ETN	$455.40 +13.02%	0.84	—	—	Stable — the electrification/data-center demand backdrop that drove the May run-up hasn't broken, but there's been zero
TLN	$356.92 -2.52%	0.82	—	—	PJM capacity auction hit its price cap with a growing reserve shortfall ("intervention doom loop") — pure scarcity prici
GEV	$1079.00 +0.02%	0.81	—	—	The same PJM print shows current mechanisms "don't work to bring online new capacity" — a structural shortfall that pull
PWR	$722.31 +13.00%	0.80	—	—	A key Democrat (Heinrich) is pushing a Texas-style grid permitting deal that "may be falling into place" — early progres
WULF	$17.60 -11.42%	0.80	—	—	Strengthening — the two proof points that mattered actually landed: a marquee $19bn/20-year Anthropic lease (a hyperscal
FCX	$68.38 +9.30%	0.75	—	—	Copper near US record with the import premium doubling and Shanghai stockpiles down 82% — genuinely new intensity on phy
VST	$146.11 -9.99%	0.74	—	—	source
IREN	$44.90 +8.74%	0.73	—	—	Reported Q2 results (8-K today) and the stock ripped 17% in a broad data-center-name rebound (Applied Digital, WULF, Cor
VRT	$292.43 -3.96%	0.71	—	—	NY enacted a data-center moratorium and national-moratorium polling is gaining real momentum (Heatmap calls the backlash
CLF	$12.31 +33.08%	0.70	—	—	Strengthening on fundamentals — the June 2025 jump in Section 232 steel tariffs to 50% and accelerating AI/data-center g
FSLR	$217.85 +5.73%	0.68	—	—	Securities-fraud class action (class period Feb '25–Feb '26) flags a disclosure/price event inside the window — adds ris
KEEL	$3.77 -18.92%	0.47	—	—	Stabilizing on borrowed strength — the bounce from 0.40 back to 0.50 is driven by a peer comp (CleanSpark's 20-year, $6.
ISRG	$390.33 +11.50%	0.46	—	—	Stock plunged today, right on the heels of the 7/16 earnings 8-K — a negative post-print reaction points to a procedure-
BE	$232.16 +2.61%	0.31	—	—	New Mexico regulators rejected the gas pipeline meant to feed fuel cells at Oracle's 2.5GW Project Jupiter — the marquee
MP	$58.51 +26.37%	0.16	-0.07	-0.07	American Rare Earths + Novex plan to build a US rare-earth-metal-to-magnet chain from Wyoming feedstock — an emerging *s

Price = delayed quote (Stooq), refreshed each cycle. Bar = current P (0–1). Δ today / Δ 7d = how far probability moved.

Calibration substrate

1 thesis(es) moved today. Each move is logged with its driver in the thesis doc's Posterior log.