Running posterior probability per thesis — click a ticker for the full thesis breakdown and live quote. P starts at the doc's prior and is nudged by each edition's thesis-impact call; disconfirming moves weigh heavier.
| Thesis | Price | Conviction (P) | P | Δ today | Δ 7d | last driver |
|---|
| ETN | $368.45 -0.15% |
| 0.89 | — | -0.03 | Peer ABB says US orders rose 82% as utilities rebuild and expand the grid. Schneider posted record Q3 revenue on data-ce |
| PWR | $549.27 -0.57% |
| 0.84 | — | -0.04 | In ISO-NE, the New England grid operator, most new projects in the Transitional Cluster have pulled out of the interconn |
| VST | $139.63 -0.85% |
| 0.76 | — | -0.11 | Stable. The DOE loan is real good news, but it's one event. The tracker counted it four times (0.77 → 0.82 → 0.92 → 0.97 |
| LEU | $103.59 -0.54% |
| 0.75 | — | +0.05 | AEP signed a deal for a 960 MW advanced nuclear plant in Indiana with Amazon and X-energy. Amazon would buy the power on |
| CEG | $252.54 -1.05% |
| 0.75 | -0.07 | -0.20 | Google expanded its PJM virtual power plant (pooled flexible demand paid like a power station) to over 1 GW. PJM demand- |
| Own-the-Bottleneck | — |
| 0.64 | — | -0.08 | Same ISO-NE story: when connecting costs $100M+, most new supply gives up. Power is still the binding constraint, and th |
| ISRG | $453.23 +2.11% |
| 0.62 | — | — | Stable. Nothing in ISRG's own business has changed since the July hit to procedure growth. The last three moves up (Unit |
| GEV | $819.60 -0.95% |
| 0.62 | — | -0.03 | Bloomberg (T1, NEW): AI stocks are getting sold off broadly and investors are openly doubting the AI trade. This mainly |
| CLF | $13.99 +7.24% |
| 0.58 | -0.03 | -0.10 | Vantage ordered 1 GW of solid-state transformers from Heron Power. These use far less of the electrical steel (GOES) tha |
| SCCO | $185.32 +0.94% |
| 0.54 | — | -0.31 | Same BNEF surplus call **CONTRADICTS** the deficit pillar for now. The cut is smaller than FCX's, because SCCO is the lo |
| FSLR | $173.36 +1.23% |
| 0.45 | — | +0.05 | LevelTen says solar power-purchase prices rose 5% in Q3, mostly because of new tariffs, and more tariffs take effect lat |
| WULF | $11.36 +0.35% |
| 0.44 | — | -0.18 | CoreWeave's bonds and other data-center debt fell on worries about heavy spending and too much borrowing. Separately, Ns |
| IREN | $25.38 -0.53% |
| 0.44 | — | -0.14 | Same lender nervousness about GPU-cloud companies like CoreWeave. It mildly **CONTRADICTS** pillars 2 and 3: the AI Clou |
| MP | $38.75 +0.49% |
| 0.38 | — | +0.07 | Phoenix Tailings is building a $375M plant in New York to make 4,400+ t/yr of rare-earth oxides by 2028. That is a new W |
| VRT | $195.23 -0.18% |
| 0.36 | — | -0.03 | Two new T2 items cut against the capex story. Heatmap ran "The Data Center Boom Is Faltering," with a Wall Street angle. |
| TLN | $326.29 -1.55% |
| 0.35 | — | — | Weakening, but less than the tracker shows. FERC opening a formal Section 206 case against PJM's large-load rules, with |
| FCX | $65.53 +1.46% |
| 0.35 | — | -0.14 | BNEF (BloombergNEF, an energy research group) now expects enough refined copper to cover demand until 2027. A long-term |
| BE | $194.24 -10.80% |
| 0.24 | -0.07 | -0.18 | The stock fell to a 3-month low the day after a strong quarter, so good results didn't hold up the price. The likely cau |
| KEEL | $2.21 -1.12% |
| 0.10 | — | — | Weakening, but mispriced. The sector evidence since Sept 11 (Pennsylvania permitting backlash, state large-load tariffs |
Price = delayed quote (Stooq), refreshed each cycle. Bar = current P (0–1). Δ today / Δ 7d = how far probability moved.
3 thesis(es) moved today. Each move is logged with its driver in the thesis doc's Posterior log.