Thesis Board
Running posterior probability per thesis — click a ticker for the full thesis breakdown and live quote. P starts at the doc's prior and is nudged by each edition's thesis-impact call; disconfirming moves weigh heavier.
| Thesis | Price | Conviction (P) | P | Δ today | Δ 7d | last driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | — | 0.86 | — | — | Stable-to-strengthening on demand, but the running P got ahead of the evidence — the +0.10 ratchet over two days (5/26→5 | |
| Own-the-Bottleneck | — | 0.81 | — | — | source | |
| PWR | — | 0.81 | — | — | Strengthening on the secular read but the conviction itself outran the evidence — the +0.10 over two days (0.73→0.83) ca | |
| CEG | — | 0.79 | — | +0.05 | Constellation's Three Mile Island (Crane) restart got a FERC waiver letting it transfer capacity interconnection rights, | |
| SCCO | — | 0.78 | — | +0.05 | Goldman cut its global copper mine-supply forecast by 350kt, widening the structural deficit (price target raised to ~$1 | |
| VST | — | 0.74 | — | — | source | |
| FSLR | — | 0.73 | — | +0.02 | Strengthening — the thesis's single biggest residual (IRA/45X repeal) resolved in First Solar's favor, and the FEOC rest | |
| VRT | — | 0.71 | — | -0.07 | NY enacted a data-center moratorium and national-moratorium polling is gaining real momentum (Heatmap calls the backlash | |
| LEU | — | 0.70 | — | — | source | |
| CLF | — | 0.70 | — | +0.03 | Strengthening on fundamentals — the June 2025 jump in Section 232 steel tariffs to 50% and accelerating AI/data-center g | |
| BE | — | 0.68 | — | — | Pennsylvania's new grid rule forcing data-center developers to pay entirely for their own energy needs — stacked with "h | |
| GEV | — | 0.66 | — | — | ||
| ISRG | — | 0.65 | — | +0.03 | Strengthening — the one hard signal in the window (Unitree's pre-IPO profit plunge) actually *validates* Pillar 1 rather | |
| IREN | — | 0.65 | — | +0.03 | Strengthening — two material-agreement filings in six days (May 26, Jun 1) plus the May 29 note both point the same way: | |
| TLN | — | 0.63 | — | — | Strengthening — the FERC co-location risk that was the single most existential threat to the thesis has eased, de-riskin | |
| WULF | — | 0.56 | — | -0.07 | NY legislature passed the first US state-wide data-center moratorium (now awaiting Hochul's signature). Lake Mariner sit | |
| FCX | — | 0.52 | — | -0.10 | Weakening — copper price and the deficit case are intact ($12,075/t, well above the $10k trigger; Goldman's 350kt supply | |
| MP | — | 0.50 | — | -0.20 | China reaffirmed its rare-earth export ban on Japan *despite* a direct US request to lift it — two independent T2 source | |
| KEEL | — | 0.50 | — | — |
Price = delayed quote (Stooq), refreshed each cycle. Bar = current P (0–1). Δ today / Δ 7d = how far probability moved.
Calibration substrate
No theses moved today. Each move is logged with its driver in the thesis doc's Posterior log.