FCX — Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.

Investment Read as of 2026-10-20

The Read

FCX is a MIXED investment right now. While the structural copper deficit remains strong, recent reports suggest immediate price weakness and conflicting supply forecasts are pressuring conviction (P=0.35).

Bull case

• Structural Demand: Copper demand from electrification and AI grids is non-negotiable, underpinning the core thesis [Thesis].
• Supply Constraints: Increased interest in high-potential assets, like Ivanhoe Electric, and confirmed flows of copper into US vaults (DRC) highlight persistent supply tightness [Northern Miner; Fastmarkets].
• Operational Strength: Major producers are reporting strong output, such as Kantra Copper's record Q3 2026 results, confirming the industry's ability to deliver material [investing.com].

Bear case / what breaks it

• Cyclical Demand Shock: A deep global recession or a major slowdown in China’s property sector could erase the structural deficit [Thesis].
• Supply Overhang: The ICGS forecast of a massive surplus directly contradicts the core thesis pillar regarding persistent deficits [mining.com/global-copper-surplus-to-more-than-triple-by-2027-icsg/].
• Price Sentiment Risk: Market rallies are currently being attributed to speculative trading rather than confirmed, sustained demand signals, as noted by Bloomberg [bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-18/traders-grow-wary-of-copper-bull-market-with-no-sign-of-tariffs].

What the latest signal says

The recent SMM South China reports show that while downstream buyers are increasing procurement volume, copper prices are pulling back. This suggests immediate price action is driven by complex supply/demand balancing rather than a clear confirmation of the structural deficit [news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAJBVV95cUxOSWpGQXRHY2E4LUlxeXV3S29ybjFFb1plaFRmT2Y2ckRvNUJ0MjJId1hRT1A3N2NHTmNEQnhUTEcwM0ZIRXI0RERhU216bU1rRHgxR3ZMX1pTam9jd1NnWWVQaDJMMTRkb00yUnp6blNhaE9OZTMwRU5ZdDN2czRqdWdQbk56Mk14emlJVzFVSWtUdlNSamh0RmFuRFBmQkQtU2tmcW1OQjBNSE9SckZVS0VCdmlTM0h2dXY2ckhFRFZVWndURjBRcEtFRVhDdm1FeEtUdG1vZ2JsdE8wRk80TUlmbi1vdzFVUTZlYkVIMjZ0YlVXQjU0WGVGQ2VoVW5M?oc=5].

Posterior history

Thesis detail

Core thesis

The largest publicly-traded copper producer (Grasberg + the Americas) — the

highest-torque equity expression of the structural copper deficit powering the AI

grid buildout and electrification. More leverage to the copper price than SCCO,

with more operating and geopolitical beta (Indonesia).

Pillars (with priors)

1. Structural copper deficit (AI grid + electrification + 16-yr mine cycle) · P = 0.80

2. Large integrated producer benefits regardless of which downstream tech wins · P = 0.75

3. Grasberg + Americas output sustained · P = 0.62

Expected news (the prior)

• Copper price/inventory data; Grasberg & Americas output; deficit forecasts; Indonesia policy

Residual = a copper price break, a Grasberg disruption/impairment, or a demand shock.

Thesis-breaking triggers (→ set P near 0)

• ☐ Copper <$10,000/t sustained for 2+ quarters
• ☐ Grasberg impairment or sustained disruption (Indonesia export/ownership policy)
• ☐ Demand shock (China property / global recession) erases the deficit
• ☐ Large new low-cost supply comes online

Leading vs lagging indicators

• Leading: LME copper inventories, Grasberg output, Indonesia mining/export policy
• Lagging: realized copper price, EPS

Key metrics

• Copper price (~$12,075/t) · C1 cash cost · output/grades · deficit forecast (150k+ MT)

Valuation anchor

~2:1 asymmetry (Scenario Analysis); higher torque than SCCO — the levered copper

beta vs. SCCO's quality. T1 structural winner.

Cross-arena sensors

B7 (Indonesia/trade policy), B2 (grid copper demand), B4 (EV/robotics copper).

Posterior log

• 2026-10-23 · P 0.35→0.40 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Weakening. Grasberg is running well below normal, and two major forecasters (ICSG and BNEF) now expect a copper surplus, not a deficit. That
• 2026-10-20 · P 0.42→0.35 ↓ · DOWN · BNEF (BloombergNEF, an energy research group) now expects enough refined copper to cover demand until 2027. A long-term mine shortfall only shows up later, towa · https://www.mining.com/copper-surplus-masks-looming-332b-mine-shortfall/
• 2026-10-18 · P 0.49→0.42 ↓ · DOWN · Bloomberg says copper's rally since Trump took office came mostly from traders shipping metal into the US ahead of possible copper tariffs, not only from real d · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-18/traders-grow-wary-of-copper-bull-market-with-no-sign-of-tariffs
• 2026-10-14 · P 0.56→0.49 ↓ · DOWN · The same ICSG surplus forecast CONTRADICTS pillar 1. FCX feels it more than SCCO because it has more exposure to the copper price. BHP also reached a preliminar · https://www.mining.com/global-copper-surplus-to-more-than-triple-by-2027-icsg/
• 2026-10-07 · P 0.51→0.56 ↑ · UP · Strike at Antofagasta's Centinela — one of Chile's largest mines — pulls supply off an already-tight market with copper near record highs. CONFIRMS pillar 1 (st · https://www.mining.com/antofagastas-centinela-strike-adds-copper-supply-risk/
• 2026-10-05 · P 0.58→0.51 ↓ · DOWN · Same supply thread, more torque: FCX is the higher-beta expression of the deficit, so restored Panamanian and Chilean tonnes hit it harder than SCCO. Note the r · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNWXBRVW41TWJnTUtuQ1hja01FbURPbnJVWjdUb1l6amQ3Tm00SkgtWlRrZWxDY2Y5emxWOVIyeFJ0WFpjbzR1NXpnTFoxaWRlQl94VjZqYjFnNGlDcDV5VzVOS1A0eTdnZkRhSTVfR0hqbDZHai0wS2E0VVk4clIybHU4Z2docGRfS0JieFpFNXd5a25uVkgyMVJTSHdVZjY5SndyMkI5VXVWNW1fOWFNTE9QUm0xcWYtY1NRMENtZ3FNYnJM?oc=5
• 2026-10-02 · P 0.65→0.58 ↓ · DOWN · Grasberg mill ran at only ~67% of normal rates in Q3 and Freeport now guides near-full production only by end of 2027 — that's another ~15 months of impaired ou · https://www.northernminer.com/news/freeports-grasberg-copper-mill-reaches-67-after-last-years-mudslide/1003895414/
• 2026-10-02 · P 0.60→0.65 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Strengthening — the copper evidence got better (near-full US warehouses, Chinese imports bypassing warehouses into consumption, the world's
• 2026-10-02 · P 0.67→0.60 ↓ · DOWN · Same supply-financing cluster, and FCX has more price leverage so it takes more of the hit. The 8-K reporting results is recurring and carries no new informatio · https://www.mining.com/world-bank-unlocks-1-4b-for-chiles-copper-giant/
• 2026-09-29 · P 0.62→0.67 ↑ · UP · Same Chile strike plus reported pre-holiday supply tightness in China's copper market — two independent T1/T2 reads on physical tightness. FCX has more price to · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-29/copper-edges-higher-as-chile-mine-dispute-raises-supply-concerns
• 2026-09-25 · P 0.67→0.62 ↓ · MAINTENANCE · Stable, but the conviction path is unearned — copper's story genuinely strengthened, yet all five up-moves since Sept 13 read the same tape
• 2026-09-25 · P 0.62→0.67 ↑ · UP · Escondida — the world's largest copper mine — stayed shut Thursday after a worker was killed in maintenance, with Chilean regulators investigating. Unscheduled · https://www.northernminer.com/news/worker-death-keeps-worlds-largest-copper-mine-shut/1003895149/
• 2026-09-22 · P 0.57→0.62 ↑ · UP · Same tape, more torque: imported copper in China is bypassing warehouses and going straight to fabricators, and US warehouses are near full. CONFIRMS the struct · https://www.mining.com/copper-price-closes-in-on-new-record-as-shanghai-london-warehouses-empty-out/
• 2026-09-21 · P 0.52→0.57 ↑ · UP · US warehouses are near full with another 100kt arriving in weeks, Shanghai premiums hit a four-year high, and London flipped back into backwardation (spot above · https://www.mining.com/copper-prices-bounce-as-us-runs-out-of-warehouse-space/
• 2026-09-18 · P 0.57→0.52 ↓ · MAINTENANCE · Weakening — the copper *story* got stronger (all-time-high price, 2026 mined-supply forecasts falling) while the *FCX-specific* case got thi
• 2026-09-18 · P 0.52→0.57 ↑ · UP · Sprott says global mined copper output could decline in 2026 — first drop since 2017 — on grades, disruptions and weak Chile. That's the supply half of the defi · https://www.northernminer.com/news/copper-mine-supply-risks-first-decline-since-2017-sprott/1003894954/
• 2026-09-13 · P 0.47→0.52 ↑ · UP · Arson destroyed equipment at Bougainville's Panguna mine days into a restart attempt after ~40 years shut — a concrete removal of future low-cost supply, which · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/pacific-island-bougainville-vows-action-after-alleged-mine-arson
• 2026-09-12 · P 0.54→0.47 ↓ · DOWN · The disconfirming read most likely to be missed tonight: both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb compromised at once with oil over $100 raises the odds of a global demand · https://www.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/1wdog0n/oil_just_crossed_100_and_two_chokepoints_are/
• 2026-09-12 · P 0.57→0.54 ↓ · DOWN · Chinese spot copper is soft — futures weakening with discounts holding — on top of the unresolved White House refined-copper tariff decision that already knocke · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAJBVV95cUxOV3A2dmI2dXRzSmtWek9CRFBNWlhYVG83SkNieDhhRTQwektxTXRSdkhSRHp0d1RxaWhkZzRlN0I0UnBrVURMelpXQTJqb2VNWkJRcjZ2RkRMM0JrMEQ2dUp5d2JkZjItM0dKNHoyTUgxeXRaWExhck4tV2ZyZ1ZsOHJoeG5QeVE1LS1EaGlucFhBZWFZUHB4ckZBeEVvV3BraHU1aVJuZVpTeDB1bE95alhPY2J5VkFFWUNRNjgyNENFZ2E4YzNVeFBmQm9tTWgtVVMyOV82aWRhYUplS1B4eHFHX044Y3ZrUEJuNXVMZXp3Sm56dTZrYS1DS1YwQ0tZQzIyV2tBcWZ6emFhbDRGXzNSYl9Ld21lZEJUXw?oc=5
• 2026-09-11 · P 0.64→0.57 ↓ · DOWN · Reuters now sources it directly — the White House copper tariff plan has stalled on affordability concerns, not just "undecided." Freeport led producers down 7% · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxNNURGbmRQdjJaanFqS0VBQUVyTjZCNkZyeTBrV2NVcWtGLVRQdk5jaG9pYU5FejR3REpqdHJSQWM0NlRUSVdnclJOR0RiWEpUNlV1ZXRUU1RPSTFlNF90elZIZWFxbFhDYm1nUlFjQ3l0UjRMbGstTmItU3BiOVZDYi0tRUxPelM0V1J6TmhVTnJJQkdxdUFBemtkdWxTdUNScndiZlNiQm1rQXRsMlh6ZFhxNnRmemFLN2ZfMnk2UQ?oc=5
• 2026-09-11 · P 0.56→0.64 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Strengthening — copper printed an all-time high (~$14,800/t, ~22% above the thesis's own $12,075 anchor), Bloomberg confirmed the supply dec
• 2026-09-10 · P 0.63→0.56 ↓ · DOWN · White House still hasn't decided on refined-copper tariffs; Freeport led US copper producers down 7% and its $100B valuation is "back in play." CONTRADICTS the · https://www.mining.com/mining-stocks-rally-comes-to-abrupt-halt-as-copper-silver-prices-plummet-and-gold-slides/
• 2026-09-10 · P 0.70→0.63 ↓ · DOWN · Washington's copper-import tariff plans have stalled and US premiums are dropping — FCX's US mines (Morenci, Bagdad, Safford) were the direct beneficiary of a d · https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/washington-tariff-plans-for-copper-imports-stall-premiums-drop-93CH-4895959
• 2026-09-08 · P 0.65→0.70 ↑ · UP · Friedland says US Big Tech is making "unconventional" approaches to Ivanhoe's Congo copper project — hyperscalers going upstream to secure raw copper directly i · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-08/ivanhoe-talking-to-big-tech-as-congo-copper-project-expands
• 2026-09-07 · P 0.60→0.65 ↑ · UP · Copper printed an all-time high on the LME after a weeks-long rally, driven by expectations Trump extends tariffs to refined metal imports plus mine supply stru · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-07/copper-surges-to-all-time-high-as-tariff-turmoil-rocks-market
• 2026-09-04 · P 0.64→0.60 ↓ · MAINTENANCE · Weakening — spot copper is near a record (~$14,800/t) but the record price is financing the exact supply response that the deficit pillar de
• 2026-09-04 · P 0.59→0.64 ↑ · UP · Same Bloomberg supply-decline read, with more torque: FCX's leverage to price is higher than SCCO's. CONFIRMS pillar 1. Offset: the recurring "no shortage of co · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/copper-is-at-risk-of-rare-supply-decline-as-mine-setbacks-mount
• 2026-09-03 · P 0.66→0.59 ↓ · DOWN · Ivanhoe Electric is chasing $1B+ in US-backed debt for Santa Cruz and has started early construction; pair that with Capstone committing to expand Pinto Valley · https://www.northernminer.com/news/sw-us-ceo-chat-ivanhoe-electric-maps-1b-debt-path-for-arizona-copper-project/1003894574/
• 2026-09-02 · P 0.73→0.66 ↓ · DOWN · A cluster of new copper supply got sanctioned or de-risked in one day — South32's Hermosa mine plan cleared the Forest Service, Hudbay says it can fund two larg · https://www.mining.com/theres-no-shortage-of-copper-its-just-in-the-wrong-place/
• 2026-09-01 · P 0.80→0.73 ↓ · DOWN · Same Hudbay news — new US copper supply pipeline getting financed. CONTRADICTS the supply-scarcity pillar at the margin; long-dated, so the core deficit thesis · https://www.northernminer.com/news/sw-us-ceo-chat-hudbay-builds-copper-giant/1003894493/
• 2026-08-31 · P 0.75→0.80 ↑ · UP · Copper printed ~$14,800/t (~$6.72/lb), near record, only easing on profit-taking — sits far above the $10,000/t break level and directly CONFIRMS the structural · https://www.northernminer.com/news/copper-price-nears-record/1003894412/
• 2026-08-20 · P 0.78→0.75 ↓ · DOWN · NEW analyst call (TD Securities) sees copper lower as US tariff-front-running flows unwind, layered on LME on-warrant inventories surging +50% in three days. Ne · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxNOTlPeHVKNkU4Tk1kdXlfZnhEdnBlZU9oLVh1Z3BTVjItYlJ6d3dNTjEyYW44Mkw5ZzYxb25iT0JudUY4a0pRTHJZbVNJdDYzemo1WXJVYVFUYWZrY3YyNEZfVmw4RlBLVlg4c0JZN09fRHJOSmZWRE1vWHpSclZiNm5oSFVITGpPTmVKdHFNQlY3alo4aGRF?oc=5
• 2026-08-19 · P 0.85→0.78 ↓ · DOWN · Same copper inventory surge + TD Securities lower-price call; higher operating/price beta than SCCO means it feels this more. Near-term CONTRADICTS the deficit · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxNOTlPeHVKNkU4Tk1kdXlfZnhEdnBlZU9oLVh1Z3BTVjItYlJ6d3dNTjEyYW44Mkw5ZzYxb25iT0JudUY4a0pRTHJZbVNJdDYzemo1WXJVYVFUYWZrY3YyNEZfVmw4RlBLVlg4c0JZN09fRHJOSmZWRE1vWHpSclZiNm5oSFVITGpPTmVKdHFNQlY3alo4aGRF?oc=5
• 2026-08-18 · P 0.80→0.85 ↑ · UP · US copper imports hit a 12-year record while LME stocks crash — physical market tightening in real time, exactly the structural deficit the thesis rests on. As · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNUGVYXy1RaUZYMmhqT3gwc2RJSjFxXzBMaUxBRE9iektCNDQ1UTdjSmVnT0dCaUdmeFRZX0h3VjJ0ckFXcjhUR2szVm83dC1DV0w1aGZoTWN1ZGRWUlQ5SDNqYVRZYWYzRGhsVmF6ZUFxaEVSRGR4VV9GNEQxNDJHLWtiNHE5djJXQ1J1V21EajRwMUQwUkpyaEh4NS1wQUprTVd6SXFR0gGrAUFVX3lxTE1lbl80eEJWbXlBaFZGT3E1cjQtLVpFUzJnR2RXU0xCcTZHcXpJVjVpOWRmQXdhLTIzdDJfeE5hbXNkZzNpbFF2V3NHdmN6aEhQQ0s5V3hEWnN0R1hLUmRqQTgwaTFCUnJ0b2ptOGNpSGl6TjF4M2JlamZ6bFc3aUZaT1c1cjg1RUhBR0F4ZHZoaUVTUTRRTmdORmVkWlY0Mmc4UDA3MkJKZWF3VQ?oc=5
• 2026-08-18 · P 0.75→0.80 ↑ · UP · · https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNUGVYXy1RaUZYMmhqT3gwc2RJSjFxXzBMaUxBRE9iektCNDQ1UTdjSmVnT0dCaUdmeFRZX0h3VjJ0ckFXcjhUR2szVm83dC1DV0w1aGZoTWN1ZGRWUlQ5SDNqYVRZYWYzRGhsVmF6ZUFxaEVSRGR4VV9GNEQxNDJHLWtiNHE5djJXQ1J1V21EajRwMUQwUkpyaEh4NS1wQUprTVd6SXFR0gGrAUFVX3lxTE1lbl80eEJWbXlBaFZGT3E1cjQtLVpFUzJnR2RXU0xCcTZHcXpJVjVpOWRmQXdhLTIzdDJfeE5hbXNkZzNpbFF2V3NHdmN6aEhQQ0s5V3hEWnN0R1hLUmRqQTgwaTFCUnJ0b2ptOGNpSGl6TjF4M2JlamZ6bFc3aUZaT1c1cjg1RUhBR0F4ZHZoaUVTUTRRTmdORmVkWlY0Mmc4UDA3MkJKZWF3VQ
• 2026-07-21 · P 0.70→0.75 ↑ · UP · Copper near US record with the import premium doubling and Shanghai stockpiles down 82% — genuinely new intensity on physical tightness beyond the recurring Chi · https://www.northernminer.com/news/copper-price-nearing-us-record-as-premium-doubles-shanghai-stockpiles-drop-82/1003893240/
• 2026-07-20 · P 0.65→0.70 ↑ · UP · Same copper tape — one-year-high China premium plus mounting Chile supply losses. CONFIRMS pillar 1; FCX carries more price torque than SCCO so the move is slig · https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rises-as-key-china-gauge-hits-one-year-high-chile-output-losses-mount/
• 2026-07-20 · P 0.60→0.65 ↑ · UP · China copper gauge rallied to $100, a one-year-plus high, as a tax crackdown chokes scrap and pulls in refined imports — fresh T1 confirmation the market is gen · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-20/key-china-copper-gauge-rallies-to-100-after-tax-crackdown
• 2026-07-17 · P 0.57→0.60 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Strengthening — the past week's supply-side evidence (IEA "worsened considerably," BHP Q4 output −5% on Chile grade decline, Codelco discipl
• 2026-07-16 · P 0.52→0.57 ↑ · UP · IEA says the copper supply outlook has "worsened considerably" (a seventh of mine output hostage to a broken sulphuric-acid market), and BMI hiked its 2026 pric · https://www.mining.com/acid-test-iea-warns-copper-supply-outlook-has-worsened-considerably/
• 2026-07-15 · P 0.47→0.52 ↑ · UP · BHP's Q4 copper output slipped 5% with more Chile grade decline flagged — a major producer's volumes shrinking as "stronger prices cushioned" the drop directly · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-15/bhp-s-iron-ore-copper-output-slip-as-top-miner-plans-for-growth
• 2026-07-13 · P 0.42→0.47 ↑ · UP · Same Codelco supply discipline tightens the copper deficit — direct support for the deficit pillar on a low-prior name. CONFIRMS. Offset to watch: oil-shock rec · https://www.northernminer.com/news/codelco-chair-puts-profit-ahead-of-copper-output/1003892948/
• 2026-07-10 · P 0.45→0.42 ↓ · DOWN · Copper near $14k while stockpiles hit records and keep building — Macquarie calls the rally "ahead of reality"; CONTRADICTS the structural-extraction-deficit pi · https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-price-rally-still-running-ahead-of-reality/
• 2026-07-09 · P 0.52→0.45 ↓ · DOWN · Macquarie says the copper rally (nearing $14,000) is running ahead of reality — global stockpiles are already at record highs and still building. Price stays we · https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-price-rally-still-running-ahead-of-reality/
• 2026-06-26 · P 0.48→0.52 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Stable-to-strengthening on the tape, drifting weak on narrative — copper at ~$12,075/t sits far above the $10,000 break trigger and says the
• 2026-06-24 · P 0.55→0.48 ↓ · DOWN · Same Anglo-Codelco low-cost supply addition; FCX's higher copper-price beta means more downside torque than SCCO if the deficit narrows. CONTRADICTS pillar 1 at · https://www.mining.com/anglo-american-codelco-to-add-2-7mt-copper-with-no-new-mine/
• 2026-06-19 · P 0.51→0.55 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Stable-to-strengthening on fundamentals, even as the running P drifted down — copper sits at ~$12,075/t (20%+ above the $10k break trigger),
• 2026-06-19 · P 0.58→0.51 ↓ · DOWN · Panama audit finds First Quantum "broadly compliant" — moves Cobre Panama (~350kt/yr, ~1.5% of global supply) closer to restart. NEW T1 supply returning CONTRAD · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-19/panama-says-audit-found-broad-compliance-at-idled-copper-mine
• 2026-06-17 · P 0.53→0.58 ↑ · UP · Protesters halted concentrate exports at Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi amid Mongolia revenue demands — a real near-term supply hit at a major mine. CONFIRMS the struct · https://www.mining.com/rio-tintos-giant-copper-mine-blocked-protesters-halt-oyu-tolgoi-exports-as-mongolia-demands-revenue-reset/
• 2026-06-15 · P 0.48→0.53 ↑ · UP · US-Iran interim deal ends the war, oil crashes, global risk-on — this directly lowers the odds of FCX's explicit "demand shock / global recession erases the def · https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3357092/hong-kong-stocks-rally-after-us-says-it-reaches-deal-iran-over-oil-flow?utm_source=rss_feed
• 2026-06-14 · P 0.43→0.48 ↑ · UP · End of the Iran war + risk-on tape (stocks up, dollar down) is a clean demand-side positive for copper — removes the global-recession/demand-shock overhang on t · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-14/us-futures-climb-oil-falls-on-iran-peace-deal-markets-wrap
• 2026-06-12 · P 0.50→0.43 ↓ · DOWN · A *named* U.S.–Iran deal to reopen Hormuz and lift crude sanctions firms up the de-escalation thread (4 days running) — this bleeds the war-driven risk-bid out · https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-iran-trade-airstrikes-for-second-straight-day-as-trump-warns-of-more-attacks-4736486
• 2026-06-12 · P 0.45→0.50 ↑ · MAINTENANCE · Weakening, but the damage is concentrated, not broad — the core copper deficit (the dominant driver) is intact and arguably stronger after G
• 2026-06-12 · P 0.52→0.45 ↓ · DOWN · Named Hormuz deal completes the war-premium unwind; copper *fell* into a shooting war on rate fears, so FCX's geopolitical beta cuts against it — CONTRADICTS th · https://www.northernminer.com/news/metals-retreat-amid-iran-conflict-and-rate-hike-concerns/1003892001/
• 2026-06-05 · P 0.55→0.52 ↓ · MAINTENANCE · Weakening — copper price and the deficit case are intact ($12,075/t, well above the $10k trigger; Goldman's 350kt supply cut tightens the ga
• 2026-06-05 · P 0.62→0.55 ↓ · DOWN · Goldman cut its global copper mine-supply forecast 350kt *citing Grasberg's slower-than-expected recovery specifically* — bullish for the price (deficit), beari · https://www.northernminer.com/news/goldman-slashes-copper-supply-outlook-as-deficits-widen/1003891788/
• 2026-05-31 · P 0.65→0.62 ↓ · DOWN · Indonesia's June-1 move to centralize copper exports turns FCX's single biggest tail risk (Grasberg/Indonesia ownership-export policy) live — directly hits Pill
• 2026-05-31 · P 0.72→0.65 ↓ · DOWN · Indonesia is advancing a plan to centralize exports of key commodities from June 1, adding regulatory uncertainty for resource producers — copper is a core Indo · https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-31/indonesia-advances-export-control-plan-despite-uncertainty
• {{date}} · created · — · AI-Energy-Thesis-Scaffold