Bottleneck Board
Grades the STATE OF A SHORTAGE, not a stock price. HARD / HARD-proxy numbers (OEM backlog & book-to-bill, uranium term price, DRAM/NAND QoQ, PJM hub & auction clears) auto-move the pillar posterior on resolution; SOFT corroborators only propose nudges through the gate and can stamp a pillar contested — they never move P. A failing grade is the rotation trigger.
Cadence-weighted calibration
monthly 100% (1)
inverse-frequency weighted: 100%Raw hit-rate per cadence tier stays legible; the aggregate weights a monthly call ~1/12 of an annual one so no tier drowns the others.
Grid equipment (transformers, switchgear)
tightBook-to-bill (GEV)
—
Elec. backlog (GEV)
—
Pillar P
0.75
as of no report yet
Open call
Aggregate grid-equipment book-to-bill (GEV, ETN) stays > 1.0 AND segment backlog grows YoY in the companies' next reported quarter.
Settles: GEV 2026-07-22 · ~ETN 2026-08-04 est
✓ bottleneck still tight -> hold/raise conviction
⚠ B2B < 1.0 OR backlog YoY negative for 2 consecutive quarters -> easing; rotate the expression
Riding: GEV · ETN
Nuclear fuel (uranium)
tightLong-term U3O8
—
Spot U3O8
—
SWU (enrichment)
—
Pillar P
0.80
as of no print yet
Open call
Long-term U3O8 indicator >= $90/lb at next month-end.
Settles: 2026-07-31 (past)
✓ term price holding >= band -> bottleneck tight; hold/raise conviction
⚠ term price < $70/lb, or SWU rolling over for 2 month-ends -> enrichment easing; cut, rotate
Riding: LEU · CCJ
Memory (DRAM / NAND / HBM)
tightDRAM contract QoQ
—
NAND contract QoQ
—
Pillar P
0.62
as of no print yet
Open call
DRAM contract price stays positive QoQ in the next TrendForce print.
Settles: ~2026-07-31 est (past)
✓ contract price rising QoQ -> tight; hold/raise conviction
⚠ DRAM QoQ turns negative, or NAND negative for 2 consecutive prints -> memory cycle rolling; cut, rotate
Riding: MU · SNDK
Grid power & capacity (PJM)
tightWestern Hub RTC
—
Latest BRA clear
—
Henry Hub gas
$2.79/MMBtu
Pillar P
0.78
as of 2026-08-17
Open call
PJM Western Hub round-the-clock monthly average >= $50/MWh in the next month.
Settles: ~2026-07-31 est (past)
✓ hub sustained high -> tight; the interim grader between auctions
⚠ hub price normalizes below band for 2 months -> power easing; cut, rotate
Riding: CEG · VST
Open call
2028/29 BRA clears >= $280/MW-day.
Settles: ~2026-06-30 est (past)
✓ BRA at/near cap -> tight; high-weight annual checkpoint
⚠ BRA clears < $200/MW-day -> power easing; cut, rotate
Riding: CEG · VST · TLN
Materials (copper)
tightGlobal copper price
$13,543/ton
Pillar P
0.70
as of 2026-08-17