Predictions
Dated, falsifiable price calls with a probability we'd bet on -- each must beat what's already priced in. Calls auto-resolve against recorded prices and build the track record below. Brain: Claude (Max) when available, else local Gemma.
Open calls
18
Settled
18
Hit rate
100%
Open calls
| Thesis | Call | Prob | Claim | From / by | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX | ▼ $59.00 | 56% | FCX trades at or below $59.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-05), down from $62.95. My edge: the market is still pricing the structural copper-deficit bull case, but two fresh negatives—Indonesia centralizing copper exports (FCX's biggest tail risk now live) and Goldman flagging a slower Grasberg ramp—are underweighted and | $62.95 → 2026-07-05 | open claude:opus |
| ISRG | ▲ $445.00 | 57% | ISRG closes at or above $445.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-05), up ~4% from $427.67. Oversold quality name near its 30d low with no thesis-breaking trigger fired, while the bearish 'drivers' are competitor (Unitree) weakness that actually reinforces ISRG's only-proven-robotics moat — a modest mean-reversion bounce is underp | $427.67 → 2026-07-05 | open claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▼ $4.50 | 62% | KEEL trades at or below $4.50 at some point within the next 30 days (by 2026-07-05). After a +52.6% run with no fresh catalyst and a pure pipeline/balance-sheet story, this high-beta name's own volatility makes a touch of a level ~10% below far more likely than the market's calm pricing implies. | $5.02 → 2026-07-05 | open claude:opus |
| LEU | ▲ $205.00 | 55% | LEU closes at or above $205.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-02). The HALEU-monopoly and Russian-ban story is fully known and priced; the only edge is a thin recent up-signal in a choppy, range-bound tape, so I barely lean above a coin flip. | $190.43 → 2026-07-02 | open claude:opus |
| SCCO | ▲ $210.00 | 55% | SCCO closes at or above $210 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-02). Structural copper tightness and $12,075/t spot support continuation, but the stock sits at its 30-day high after +10.3% with no fresh catalyst, so the edge over priced-in momentum is only modest. | $200.43 → 2026-07-02 | open claude:opus |
| CLF | ▼ $12.50 | 55% | CLF closes at or below $12.50 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-02), a ~15% pullback from $14.75. After a +61.6% run straight into the 30-day high with no fresh catalyst, the GOES/grid thesis is now well-priced and the stock is stretched, so mean-reversion risk outweighs continuation here. | $14.75 → 2026-07-02 | open claude:opus |
| ETN | ▲ $430.00 | 57% | ETN closes at or above $430.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-02), a +2.9% move that revisits the prior 30d high near $433. Confirmed capex/PPA signals (Google, Modine, 2G) support the demand wave, but the move is largely priced in near recent highs, so edge is modest — I discount the inflated running P=0.86 to a disciplined coin-flip-plus. | $417.92 → 2026-07-02 | open claude:opus |
| BE | ▲ $330.00 | 54% | BE closes at or above $330 (a new 30-day high, ~+9%) at least once within 30 days of 2026-06-02. Two fresh grid-bypass catalysts (T5 primary-power deployment + PA rule shifting interconnection cost onto DC developers) reinforce the thesis and aren't fully priced into a momentum name still making highs, but rich valuation and the +37% r | $303.10 → 2026-07-02 | open claude:opus |
| TLN | ▲ $409.99 | 55% | TLN closes at or above $409.99 (matching its 30d high) at some point within 30 days, by 2026-07-01. Two recent reviews confirm the FERC co-location risk — the single biggest existential threat to the AWS PPA — is resolving favorably, a de-risking the market has only partly priced given the still-thin coverage discount. | $375.27 → 2026-07-01 | open claude:opus |
| VRT | ▲ $345.00 | 58% | VRT closes at or above $345 (+5.6%) at least once within 30 days, by 2026-07-01. Fresh design-win/deal flow (Soluna, Modine, 2G Energy) plus AI-capex tailwind give a modest momentum edge, but the premium multiple is largely priced in so I only lean slightly above coin-flip. | $326.56 → 2026-07-01 | open claude:opus |
| MP | ▲ $74.00 | 54% | MP trades at or above $74.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-01). Geopolitical scarcity tailwind plus high realized volatility make a marginal new high reachable, but the fresh $26.2M CEO insider sale near the range top caps my edge close to a coin flip. | $69.29 → 2026-07-01 | open claude:opus |
| FSLR | ▲ $325.00 | 57% | FSLR closes at or above $325 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-28). The favorable IRA/45X resolution removed the thesis's biggest tail risk and re-rates a still-cheap (~14x) name, but the stock already sits at its 30d high after a +13.7% run, so much of the relief is priced — edge is real but modest. | $306.80 → 2026-06-28 | open claude:opus |
| WULF | ▲ $29.50 | 52% | WULF trades at or above $29.50 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-27). No fresh catalyst in the data, so I have no real edge — a high-beta AI-pivot miner mechanically tends to swing ±10%+ in a month, and I lean marginally long on the structural re-rating narrative, but I stay near a coin-flip because nothing r | $26.40 → 2026-06-27 | open claude:opus |
| IREN | ▲ $72.00 | 52% | IREN closes at or above $72.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-06-27). No fresh drivers and flat tape mean I have no real edge, so I default near coin-flip with a slight upward tilt reflecting the high-beta AI-power re-rate bias but nothing that justifies conviction. | $64.02 → 2026-06-27 | open claude:opus |
| CEG | ▲ $300.00 | 58% | CEG closes above $300.00 at least once within the next 30 days (by 2026-06-26), up from $288.69. Edge: stock sits exactly at its 30-day low after a -4.3% pullback while recent narrative drivers (Jefferies ESG, MI grid plan, restart momentum) are inflecting positive — a modest mean-reversion bounce toward the recent $301.57 high isn't y | $288.69 → 2026-06-26 | open claude:opus |
| VST | ▲ $164.50 | 58% | VST closes at or above $164.50 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-26), reclaiming the prior 30-day high from its current $160.15 range-low. Sitting at the exact 30-day low after a -2.7% pullback in a tight 2.7% range, mean-reversion plus intact PPA/uprate catalysts give an edge on a modest bounce the tape has not yet repriced. | $160.15 → 2026-06-26 | open claude:opus |
| PWR | ▲ $760.00 | 60% | PWR rises from $733.62 to at least $760.00 (≈+3.6%) within 30 days, by 2026-06-26. Stock sits at its 30-day low with fresh grid-modernization catalysts (Illinois plan, storage record, NextEra/Dominion deal) not yet reflected in the flat range-bound tape, giving a modest mean-reversion-plus-catalyst edge. | $733.62 → 2026-06-26 | open claude:opus |
| GEV | ▲ $1060.00 | 53% | GEV closes above $1060 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-26), a ~2.7% bounce off the current 30d low. Price sits exactly at its 30d low in a tight low-vol range with no thesis-breaking trigger, so a modest mean-reversion bounce is slightly underpriced, but absent a fresh catalyst my edge is thin so I stay near 0.50. | $1031.89 → 2026-06-26 | open claude:opus |
Resolved
| Thesis | Call | Prob | Claim | From / by | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISRG | ▲ $425.00 | 55% | ISRG trades at or above $425 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-06-27). Stock sits exactly at its 30-day low with no thesis-breaking trigger fired — the negative drivers are humanoid-robotics noise (Unitree), not surgical — so mean reversion in a quality compounder gives a slight edge over the priced-in pessimi | $417.44 → 2026-06-27 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▼ $5.20 | 55% | KEEL falls to $5.20 or below within 30 days (by 2026-06-28). Price is pinned at its 30d low with zero catalysts in hand, real Q1 cash burn, and no anchor lease — a high-beta speculative name with no near-term proof point tends to bleed lower, but the edge is thin so I stay near 0.50. | $5.50 → 2026-06-28 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| FCX | ▼ $63.00 | 58% | FCX trades down to $63.00 or lower at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-01), from $67.04. Indonesia's June-1 export-centralization move hits FCX's single biggest tail risk (Grasberg) fresh and is not yet fully digested, outweighing the still-strong copper price near term — but high copper (~$12,075/t) caps the downside, so convi | $67.04 → 2026-07-01 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| LEU | ▲ $190.00 | 53% | LEU closes at or above $190.00 at least once within the 30-day window ending 2026-06-26. Price is pinned at its 30-day low ($180.13) with no thesis-breaking trigger fired and a fresh UP driver on 5/26, giving a mild mean-reversion/positive-skew edge — but absent a concrete catalyst print I keep probability barely above a coin f | $180.13 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| ETN | ▲ $413.00 | 57% | ETN closes at or above $413.00 (+1.6%) at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-26). Confirmatory capex signals support modest upside, but the secular AI-power story is already in the premium multiple and the stock is pinned at its 30d high in a tight $403–406 range, so the honest edge is small. | $406.37 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| CLF | ▲ $14.25 | 56% | CLF closes at or above $14.25 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-27), up ~7% from $13.29. Structural GOES-monopoly bid plus intact momentum (+10.9% 30d) modestly outweighs the priced-in risk that a 30d-high with no fresh catalyst stalls — only a slight edge, hence near-coin-flip. | $13.29 → 2026-06-27 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| SCCO | ▲ $196.50 | 55% | SCCO closes at or above $196.50 within 30 days (by 2026-06-27), a new local high above the $194.88 recent ceiling. Copper at ~$12,075/t sits well above the $10,000 thesis-break line and SCCO is pinned at its 30d high, but with no fresh catalyst the breakout edge is thin — only modestly better than a coin flip. | $194.88 → 2026-06-27 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| BE | ▲ $295.00 | 55% | BE closes at or above $295.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-06-28), a ~7% rebound from the current $275.28. Stock sits at its 30-day low while two fresh demand signals (T5 primary-power deal, PA grid rule pushing DCs to self-generate) point the on-site thesis the right way — a modest oversold bounce edge, but rich multiple and downtrend keep me o | $275.28 → 2026-06-28 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| MP | ▲ $67.50 | 56% | MP closes at or above $67.50 at least once within the 30-day window ending 2026-06-26. Price sits at the bottom of a tight $65.21-$66.99 range with intact scarcity/DOD optionality and fresh geopolitical catalysts, giving a slight mean-reversion edge over the flat consensus, but the weak realized return justifies only modest c | $65.21 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| FCX | ▲ $66.00 | 55% | FCX rises to at least $66.00 within 30 days (by 2026-06-26), up ~3.7% from $63.63. Price sits at the bottom of its tight recent range while copper holds ~$12,075/t, giving high-beta FCX modest mean-reversion upside the flat tape hasn't yet priced. | $63.63 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| VRT | ▲ $323.00 | 61% | VRT rises from $308.99 to at least $323.00 within 30 days (by 2026-06-27). Stock sits exactly at its 30-day low while AI-capex thesis stays intact and fresh deal/hire flow (Soluna, Modine, Accelsius) signals momentum, so mean-reversion off support is underpriced versus the recent $323.91 high. | $308.99 → 2026-06-27 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| TLN | ▼ $379.78 | 55% | TLN closes below $379.78 (the prior 30d low) at least once within 30 days, by 2026-06-28. Price is pinned at the top of its 30d range (+0.5%, high=current) on a thin-coverage, high-beta name with no fresh catalyst until the Cornerstone/FERC and EBITDA prints — mean-reversion and the lagging interest-coverage overhang slightly fa | $390.99 → 2026-06-28 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| TLN | ▲ $385.00 | 65% | TLN trades up to $385.00 (a ~1.4% touch) at some point within the next 30 days, by 2026-06-26. Edge is volatility-at-the-floor: the stock is pinned at its 30-day low with no active thesis-breaker and an intact AWS-PPA re-rate story, so for a beta~1.6 name a modest upside touch is more likely than the flat ~0.50 a no-catalyst tape imp | $379.68 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| BE | ▼ $280.00 | 61% | BE trades down to touch $280.00 (-4.7%) at some point within 30 days, by 2026-06-26. Price sits exactly at its 30d low with negative momentum and no fresh order catalyst, so this high-beta name has elevated odds of extending the breakdown that flat pricing underweights, and ~17% monthly vol makes a sub-5% downside touch lik | $293.80 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| FSLR | ▲ $305.00 | 56% | FSLR closes at or above $305.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-27), up ~4.7% from $291.39. Stock just printed a fresh 30d high on +7.9% momentum with an intact cheap-multiple/AI-power thesis and no negative catalyst priced in, but absence of fresh bookings/policy news caps my edge near coin-flip. | $291.39 → 2026-06-27 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| CLF | ▲ $13.25 | 55% | CLF rises from $12.83 to touch $13.25 (+3.3%) at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-26). High-beta name riding positive momentum (at 30d high, +7.1%) with a structural GOES bid, but the monopoly thesis is now consensus (target ~$33) and there's no fresh catalyst, so edge over a normal-volatility drift is thin — barely above coi | $12.83 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| SCCO | ▲ $193.00 | 60% | SCCO trades at or above $193.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-06-26), up from $187.75. Stock sits at its 30d low with copper holding ~$12,075/t and a structural deficit intact, giving an asymmetric mean-reversion bounce edge versus a flat tape priced for no catalyst. | $187.75 → 2026-06-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▲ $5.62 | 50% | KEEL stays flat and closes within ±0% of $5.62 by 2026-06-27, neither breaking above nor below the 30-day pinned range. With zero realized volatility over 30 days and no recent drivers, I have no genuine edge over the priced-in coin-flip, so I anchor at base rate rather than fabricate conviction. | $5.62 → 2026-06-27 | ✓ hit claude:opus |