Predictions
Dated, falsifiable price calls with a probability we'd bet on -- each must beat what's already priced in. Calls auto-resolve against recorded prices and build the track record below. Brain: Claude (Max) when available, else local Gemma.
Open calls
7
Settled
84
Hit rate (all settled)
68%
Matured cohort
67%
83 calls past deadline
Open calls
| Thesis | Call | Prob | Claim | From / by | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | ▲ $293.00 | 60% | CEG closes at or above $293 (about +5.3%) at some point within the next 30 days (by 2026-09-16). Momentum is confirming the thesis — capacity cleared at cap, Walmart PPA, FERC restart waiver — and the fleet re-rates toward the ~$368 consensus faster than a 27x multiple already prices, though sitting at the 30d high caps how much edge I | $278.20 → 2026-09-16 | open claude:opus |
| VST | ▲ $155.00 | 57% | VST closes at or above $155.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-09-16), a ~6% bounce off the current $146.11 30-day low. Price sits exactly at its 30-day low with no thesis-breaking trigger tripped and a strong structural nuclear-for-AI bid, so mean reversion has a slight edge over priced-in momentum, but absent a fresh catalyst the edge is thin. | $146.11 → 2026-09-16 | open claude:opus |
| TLN | ▲ $388.00 | 56% | TLN closes at or above $388.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-09-16). The July PJM capacity price-cap print flows directly to Susquehanna's uncontracted MW and isn't reflected in a stock that sold off ~19% from its high despite two existential binaries (Cornerstone close, FERC path) resolving favorably. | $356.92 → 2026-09-16 | open claude:opus |
| LEU | ▲ $200.00 | 56% | LEU closes at or above $200 at least once within the 30-day window ending 2026-09-16, up ~8.6% from $184.12. Real federal tailwinds (DOE $17.5B loans, NRC licensing overhaul) give a modest edge to the upside, but the running P has outrun substance and price sits near its 30d high, so I stay only slightly better than a coin flip. | $184.12 → 2026-09-16 | open claude:opus |
| MP | ▼ $52.00 | 56% | MP trades at or below $52.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-09-16). Three separate Western rare-earth rivals scaled in the past month and a CSIS analyst flagged the China clampdown backfiring, eroding MP's 'only integrated Western player' moat faster than the still-distant 2028 DOD catalyst can offset — a b | $58.51 → 2026-09-16 | open claude:opus |
| FCX | ▲ $73.00 | 60% | FCX closes at or above $73.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-09-16), up from $68.38. Copper is printing record China premiums and 82%-drawn Shanghai stockpiles, yet FCX equity has lagged (-1.9% on the month) — that divergence sets up a catch-up move above the $70.15 range high, though the equity's own hesitation caps my con | $68.38 → 2026-09-16 | open claude:opus |
| CLF | ▼ $8.25 | 58% | CLF trades at or below $8.25 at some point within the next 30 days (by 2026-08-19), from $9.19. Price just printed a fresh 30-day low with a -37.7% monthly return and no new bullish catalyst, so near-term downside momentum is under-priced by the long-horizon GOES-monopoly thesis. | $9.19 → 2026-08-19 | open claude:opus |
Resolved
| Thesis | Call | Prob | Claim | From / by | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | ▲ $362.00 | 55% | VRT closes at or above $362.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-22), up ~4.8% from $345.44. The freshest signal — the NY data-center moratorium — is localized political noise that the market is over-weighting, while actual hyperscaler capex and liquid-cooling order flow (the real demand source) keep compounding, leaving a modest e | $345.44 → 2026-07-22 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| VST | ▲ $177.50 | 56% | VST touches $177.50 (+6.1%) at least once within 30 days, by 2026-07-22. Fresh 30-day-high breakout with intact AI-power momentum and ongoing PPA-delivery cadence is underpriced versus the leverage fear that keeps VST at the cheapest operator multiple. | $167.26 → 2026-07-22 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| TLN | ▲ $440.00 | 56% | TLN trades at or above $440 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-24). Two existential binaries (FERC co-location, Cornerstone close) resolved favorably in the last three weeks, partly defusing the single-asset/single-contract fragility discount, yet the stock sits ~7% below its recent $438 high and well under | $405.89 → 2026-07-24 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| CEG | ▲ $280.00 | 55% | CEG closes at or above $280 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-27), up ~6% from $264.02. The ~12% pullback from the $301 high overshot a structurally intact scarce-nuclear-into-AI thesis, leaving room for mean reversion above what the recent soft tape prices in, but with no confirmed near-term catalyst I hold probability only m | $264.02 → 2026-07-27 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| FSLR | ▲ $255.00 | 60% | FSLR closes at or above $255 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-29), up ~9% from $234.28. The biggest overhang—IRA/45X repeal—resolved favorably and the stock has already given back its entire run from $318 to near $234 support, so the de-risked policy backdrop isn't yet repriced into a 14x value name. | $234.28 → 2026-07-29 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| WULF | ▲ $28.98 | 55% | WULF closes at or above $28.98 (prior 30d high) at least once within 30 days, by 2026-07-29. The hyperscaler-backstopped hosting contract landed and reviews keep strengthening, but most of that re-rate is already in the +10% run, so the edge over priced-in is thin and the NY data-center moratorium caps upside. | $25.09 → 2026-07-29 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| IREN | ▲ $52.00 | 56% | IREN closes at or above $52.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-29), up ~13% from $46.15. Fundamentals are strengthening (contracted hyperscale AI Cloud deals, AWS GPU price hikes confirming pillar 2) while the price sits at its 30-day low — a divergence that suggests the -18% selloff overshot and leaves room for a partial mean- | $46.15 → 2026-07-29 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| PWR | ▲ $745.00 | 57% | PWR closes at or above $745 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-29), up ~4.3% from $714.45. The 18 June FERC interconnection-speedup directive is a fresh demand-pull catalyst the recent -6.7% pullback hasn't priced, but with conviction admittedly ahead of confirming evidence I only modestly favor a bounce back toward mid-range rat | $714.45 → 2026-07-29 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| ETN | ▲ $442.00 | 60% | ETN closes at or above $442.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-30). Confirmed AI-power capex signals plus multi-year backlog give a durable bid, but with price already near the $435.78 high the easy move is priced in, so I only claim a modest new high, not a blowout. | $426.12 → 2026-07-30 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| GEV | ▲ $1240.00 | 56% | GEV trades at or above $1240 (about +5.5%) at some point within 30 days, by 2026-07-30. The federal national-security backing for gas-fired AI data centers is a fresh, still-digesting catalyst that adds order-flow torque momentum can extend — but the premium multiple at a fresh high caps my edge to a modest continuation call, | $1174.86 → 2026-07-30 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| BE | ▲ $330.00 | 55% | BE closes at or above $330 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-31), up ~7% from $307.77. Fresh DC order flow (60MW) plus Pennsylvania developer-pays tailwind should push a high-beta name back toward its recent $345 high, but the FERC faster-interconnection headwind chipping at the grid-bypass premium keeps me only modestly abov | $307.77 → 2026-07-31 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| LEU | ▲ $195.00 | 60% | LEU closes at or above $195.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-08-05). The fresh 7/5 $17.5B federal nuclear supply-chain loan program plus the 7/2 material-agreement 8-K are concrete, days-old catalysts that flow directly to the sole US HALEU enricher, and the market has only moved +3% — underpricing a run bac | $178.12 → 2026-08-05 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| ISRG | ▲ $440.00 | 60% | ISRG trades at or above $440 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-07), up from $417.65. The 7% drop prices in GLP-1/China fear, but Q2 earnings (~July 22) land in-window and ISRG's history of beat-and-raise on 15%+ procedure growth — plus competitor-weakness headlines reinforcing its robotics-scarcity premium — favor a rebound | $417.65 → 2026-08-07 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| SCCO | ▲ $193.00 | 62% | SCCO closes at or above $193.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-08-13), up from $183.29. Copper holding ~20% above the break trigger plus Codelco's explicit output-over-profit discipline tightens the deficit narrative faster than SCCO's flat 30d price reflects. | $183.29 → 2026-08-13 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▼ $3.60 | 60% | KEEL trades at or below $3.60 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-15), down from $4.03. Confirmed dilution and a two-downgrade slide against zero signed anchor lease means the CleanSpark-driven pop fades and the stock keeps bleeding toward new lows while the market waits for proof the pivot is real. | $4.03 → 2026-08-15 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| MP | ▼ $42.00 | 56% | MP trades at or below $42.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-15), down ~7.6% from $45.46. The market is still repricing the collapse of Pillar 1 as REalloys–JS Link and other Western integrated chains emerge, eroding the strategic-monopoly premium faster than rising Pr-Nd prices can offset. | $45.46 → 2026-08-15 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| FCX | ▲ $63.00 | 62% | FCX closes at or above $63.00 within 30 days (by 2026-08-19), up from $58.79. The stock sits near its 30-day low after an 18% drop while copper trades at one-year highs on worsening supply — an equity-vs-metal divergence that should mean-revert. | $58.79 → 2026-08-19 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| CLF | ▲ $13.25 | 58% | CLF closes at or above $13.25 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-18). Positive momentum (+18.9% 30d) plus the firm 50% Section 232 tariff floor on GOES pricing gives a modest edge over a market still treating CLF as a generic cyclical steelmaker, but most of the structural scarcity story is already priced, so | $12.19 → 2026-07-18 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| FCX | ▼ $56.50 | 54% | FCX trades at or below $56.50 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-06), a ~4.8% drop from $59.33. Fresh low-cost supply additions (Cobre Panama restart, Anglo-Codelco) hit FCX's high copper-price beta hardest, and the equity is already diverging weak — near its 30d low while copper sits at a rich $12,075/t — signaling the tape doesn't b | $59.33 → 2026-08-06 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▼ $4.10 | 60% | KEEL trades at or below $4.10 at some point within the next 30 days (by 2026-08-06). Confirmed dilution plus three straight conviction downgrades and no anchor lease signal keep selling pressure on a high-beta pivot story that has already broken below $4.21, versus a market still pricing residual pipeline optionality. | $4.44 → 2026-08-06 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| MP | ▼ $45.00 | 60% | MP trades at or below $45.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-12). Momentum is at a fresh 30d low with the sole-Western-supplier premium actively eroding (two recent DOWN/REVIEW drivers), while the bullish Pr-Nd price tailwind is already absorbed and hasn't stemmed the slide. | $49.50 → 2026-08-12 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| SCCO | ▲ $180.00 | 62% | SCCO closes at or above $180.00 within 30 days (by 2026-08-02), up ~4.6% from $172.01. Stock has pulled back to the low end of its 30d range while copper holds ~$12,075/t (20% above the break trigger) and Goldman's supply cuts widen the deficit — a favorable entry the recent price weakness underprices. | $172.01 → 2026-08-02 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| MP | ▼ $50.00 | 56% | MP trades at or below $50.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-01). The market is still digesting a fresh cluster of Western REE entrants (Norra Kärr, REalloys, Consolidated Lithium) that erode MP's monopoly premium faster than the modest Pr-Nd oxide bounce offsets, and price is already breaking to new lows | $53.31 → 2026-08-01 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| FCX | ▼ $59.00 | 55% | FCX trades at or below $59.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-05). Copper near $12,075/t hasn't lifted the equity while fresh low-cost supply (Cobre Panama restart, Anglo-Codelco) and a weakening narrative pressure FCX's high copper-price beta more than the tape yet reflects. | $61.22 → 2026-08-05 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▼ $4.50 | 60% | KEEL closes at or below $4.50 within 30 days (by 2026-08-05). Three straight thesis downgrades on confirmed dilution and cash burn, with no anchor lease catalyst priced to offset — the balance-sheet erosion outweighs pipeline optionality near-term. | $4.97 → 2026-08-05 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| ISRG | ▲ $450.00 | 55% | ISRG trades at or above $450 at least once within the 30-day window ending 2026-08-05. Q2 earnings land inside the window and the robotics-narrative tailwind (Musk deflating Optimus, Unitree's profit collapse) reinforces ISRG as the only proven robotics compounder, but most of that is priced, so the edge over the recent $449 | $432.83 → 2026-08-05 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| ISRG | ▲ $445.00 | 58% | ISRG trades at or above $445 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-08-06), up from $427.30. Q2 earnings land inside the window and the competitive-moat narrative keeps strengthening (Musk/Unitree humanoid stumbles), so the setup skews to a retest of the recent $449 high — but earnings two-way risk keeps me only modestly above coin | $427.30 → 2026-08-06 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| FCX | ▼ $59.00 | 56% | FCX trades at or below $59.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-05), down from $62.95. My edge: the market is still pricing the structural copper-deficit bull case, but two fresh negatives—Indonesia centralizing copper exports (FCX's biggest tail risk now live) and Goldman flagging a slower Grasberg ramp—are underweighted and | $62.95 → 2026-07-05 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| KEEL | ▼ $4.50 | 62% | KEEL trades at or below $4.50 at some point within the next 30 days (by 2026-07-05). After a +52.6% run with no fresh catalyst and a pure pipeline/balance-sheet story, this high-beta name's own volatility makes a touch of a level ~10% below far more likely than the market's calm pricing implies. | $5.02 → 2026-07-05 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| ISRG | ▲ $440.00 | 56% | ISRG closes at or above $440 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-08-01), up ~3.3% from $426.01 and inside the recent $449 high. Edge is modest: the only fresh signal (Musk deflating humanoid-competitor hype) marginally favors the proven-robotics-monopoly thesis, but no ISRG-specific catalyst is in-window, so I stay just above coin-flip. | $426.01 → 2026-08-01 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| LEU | ▲ $175.00 | 55% | LEU closes at or above $175 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-08-02), rebounding from $162.13. Two hard bull prints (Oklo HALEU offtake, DOE $17.5B loan program) landed inside the last two weeks while the stock corrected 11% from its $199 high, so a partial retrace toward $175 — a level it held days ago — is underpriced by the recent | $162.13 → 2026-08-02 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| LEU | ▲ $205.00 | 55% | LEU closes at or above $205.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-02). The HALEU-monopoly and Russian-ban story is fully known and priced; the only edge is a thin recent up-signal in a choppy, range-bound tape, so I barely lean above a coin flip. | $190.43 → 2026-07-02 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| SCCO | ▲ $210.00 | 55% | SCCO closes at or above $210 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-02). Structural copper tightness and $12,075/t spot support continuation, but the stock sits at its 30-day high after +10.3% with no fresh catalyst, so the edge over priced-in momentum is only modest. | $200.43 → 2026-07-02 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| MP | ▲ $74.00 | 54% | MP trades at or above $74.00 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-01). Geopolitical scarcity tailwind plus high realized volatility make a marginal new high reachable, but the fresh $26.2M CEO insider sale near the range top caps my edge close to a coin flip. | $69.29 → 2026-07-01 | ✗ miss claude:opus |
| ISRG | ▲ $420.00 | 55% | ISRG closes above $420 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-26), up from $406.28. Stock sits near its 30-day low after a -3.3% slide with the moat thesis intact and a July earnings print likely to reaffirm mid-teens procedure growth, but no hard ISRG-specific catalyst is yet priced, so the edge is thin and conviction sta | $406.28 → 2026-07-26 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| MP | ▼ $53.90 | 55% | MP closes at or below $53.90 (its prior 30-day low) at least once within 30 days, by 2026-08-01. Fresh Western-entrant and Swedish-deposit news erodes the 'only integrated Western player' moat while the scarcity tailwind is already priced in, and price is drifting down near its range low with no clean 30-day catalyst. | $57.07 → 2026-08-01 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| GEV | ▲ $1160.00 | 56% | GEV closes at or above $1160 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-18), up ~5.2% from $1103.01. The DoJ pushing to dismiss the xAI turbine suit removes a legal overhang the market hadn't fully cleared, and firm-power demand keeps a bid under the stock, but the premium multiple near 30d highs caps the edge to modest. | $1103.01 → 2026-07-18 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| ETN | ▲ $425.00 | 58% | ETN closes at or above $425.00 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-23). Confirmed buildout demand gives a mild upward drift bias, but the secular story is already priced into a premium multiple, so I only edge slightly above a coin flip rather than chasing the prior $0.86 conviction. | $414.69 → 2026-07-23 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| BE | ▲ $300.00 | 58% | BE trades at or above $300 at some point within 30 days (by 2026-07-29), up from $275.01. Durable, accelerating order flow (T5 60MW, PA developer-pays rule) plus high beta and a recent $345 print make a $300 touch more likely than the flat tape implies, even with the FERC interconnection headwind. | $275.01 → 2026-07-29 | ✓ hit claude:opus |
| BE | ▲ $325.00 | 55% | BE closes at or above $325 at least once within 30 days (by 2026-07-30), up ~7.4% from $302.48. Durable DC fuel-cell demand signals (T5 60MW order, Pennsylvania developer-pays rule) plus high beta favor an upside test, but the running P already ran ahead of evidence and FERC-driven interconnection risk caps conviction near a coin-flip | $302.48 → 2026-07-30 | ✓ hit claude:opus |