Portfolio
Factor exposure
The 15 names are really a handful of correlated bets. This is where conviction is concentrated — a move in one factor moves the whole cluster, so treat these as the real units of risk, not 15 independent positions.
| Factor (correlated bet) | Breadth | Avg conviction (P) | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear & fuel | 4 names | 0.82 | CEG, VST, TLN, LEU |
| Grid & power equipment | 3 names | 0.82 | ETN, PWR, GEV |
| Materials | 4 names | 0.65 | MP, FCX, SCCO, CLF |
| Data-center hardware | 1 names | 0.71 | VRT |
| AI data-center power | 3 names | 0.67 | WULF, IREN, KEEL |
| Distributed power & solar | 2 names | 0.49 | BE, FSLR |
| Robotics | 1 names | 0.46 | ISRG |
Open predictions — sizing
Relative size weights from each call's edge (probability above a coin flip), with the implied move and whether the call runs with or against recent price drift. Relative + heuristic — trust it only as far as the calibration page eventually proves the calls.
| Ticker | Call | Prob | Implied move | vs recent drift | Rel. size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCCO | ▲ $193.00 | 62% | +5.3% | momentum (+7.6% 10d) | 9% |
| FCX | ▲ $63.00 | 62% | +7.2% | momentum (+5.3% 10d) | 9% |
| FSLR | ▲ $255.00 | 60% | +8.8% | contrarian (-7.4% 10d) | 7% |
| ETN | ▲ $442.00 | 60% | +3.7% | momentum (+0.5% 10d) | 7% |
| LEU | ▲ $195.00 | 60% | +9.5% | contrarian (-5.6% 10d) | 7% |
| ISRG | ▲ $440.00 | 60% | +5.4% | contrarian (-14.6% 10d) | 7% |
| KEEL | ▼ $3.60 | 60% | -10.7% | momentum (-0.2% 10d) | 7% |
| CLF | ▼ $8.25 | 58% | -10.2% | momentum (-4.3% 10d) | 6% |
| PWR | ▲ $745.00 | 57% | +4.3% | contrarian (-4.6% 10d) | 5% |
| VST | ▲ $177.50 | 56% | +6.1% | momentum (+3.7% 10d) | 4% |
| TLN | ▲ $440.00 | 56% | +8.4% | contrarian (-0.8% 10d) | 4% |
| IREN | ▲ $52.00 | 56% | +12.7% | contrarian (-3.1% 10d) | 4% |
| GEV | ▲ $1240.00 | 56% | +5.5% | momentum (+3.3% 10d) | 4% |
| MP | ▼ $42.00 | 56% | -7.6% | momentum (-12.3% 10d) | 4% |
| VRT | ▲ $362.00 | 55% | +4.8% | contrarian (-5.1% 10d) | 4% |
| CEG | ▲ $280.00 | 55% | +6.1% | momentum (+3.7% 10d) | 4% |
| WULF | ▲ $28.98 | 55% | +15.5% | contrarian (-14.3% 10d) | 4% |
| BE | ▲ $330.00 | 55% | +7.2% | contrarian (-17.6% 10d) | 4% |