Portfolio
Factor exposure
The 15 names are really a handful of correlated bets. This is where conviction is concentrated — a move in one factor moves the whole cluster, so treat these as the real units of risk, not 15 independent positions.
| Factor (correlated bet) | Breadth | Avg conviction (P) | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear & fuel | 4 names | 0.67 | CEG, VST, TLN, LEU |
| Grid & power equipment | 3 names | 0.76 | ETN, PWR, GEV |
| Materials | 4 names | 0.54 | MP, FCX, SCCO, CLF |
| Data-center hardware | 1 names | 0.38 | VRT |
| AI data-center power | 3 names | 0.33 | WULF, IREN, KEEL |
| Distributed power & solar | 2 names | 0.39 | BE, FSLR |
| Robotics | 1 names | 0.62 | ISRG |
Open predictions — sizing
Relative size weights from each call's edge (probability above a coin flip), with the implied move and whether the call runs with or against recent price drift. Relative + heuristic — trust it only as far as the calibration page eventually proves the calls.
| Ticker | Call | Prob | Implied move | vs recent drift | Rel. size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEU | ▲ $160.00 | 68% | +8.8% | contrarian (-25.6% 10d) | 11% |
| FSLR | ▼ $158.00 | 66% | -8.2% | momentum (-4.0% 10d) | 10% |
| IREN | ▲ $52.50 | 63% | +11.2% | contrarian (-29.7% 10d) | 8% |
| VST | ▲ $170.00 | 63% | +6.5% | contrarian (-10.6% 10d) | 8% |
| ETN | ▲ $462.00 | 62% | +5.0% | contrarian (-10.1% 10d) | 7% |
| TLN | ▼ $300.00 | 62% | -9.6% | momentum (-11.0% 10d) | 7% |
| PWR | ▲ $745.00 | 62% | +4.7% | contrarian (-11.3% 10d) | 7% |
| FCX | ▲ $76.50 | 60% | +7.7% | contrarian (-3.3% 10d) | 6% |
| SCCO | ▲ $220.00 | 58% | +5.0% | momentum (+0.2% 10d) | 5% |
| CEG | ▲ $315.00 | 57% | +5.7% | contrarian (-12.5% 10d) | 4% |
| GEV | ▲ $965.00 | 57% | +5.1% | contrarian (-9.5% 10d) | 4% |
| KEEL | ▼ $2.05 | 56% | -11.6% | momentum (-25.7% 10d) | 4% |
| ISRG | ▲ $445.00 | 55% | +4.6% | momentum (+5.0% 10d) | 3% |
| WULF | ▲ $15.50 | 55% | +12.6% | contrarian (-17.6% 10d) | 3% |
| MP | ▼ $36.00 | 55% | -9.9% | momentum (-15.8% 10d) | 3% |
| BE | ▼ $215.00 | 55% | -10.2% | momentum (-23.9% 10d) | 3% |
| VRT | ▲ $225.00 | 55% | +8.7% | contrarian (-17.6% 10d) | 3% |
| CLF | ▲ $15.25 | 55% | +8.2% | momentum (+15.0% 10d) | 3% |