Portfolio
Factor exposure
The 15 names are really a handful of correlated bets. This is where conviction is concentrated — a move in one factor moves the whole cluster, so treat these as the real units of risk, not 15 independent positions.
| Factor (correlated bet) | Breadth | Avg conviction (P) | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear & fuel | 4 names | 0.71 | CEG, VST, TLN, LEU |
| Grid & power equipment | 3 names | 0.78 | ETN, PWR, GEV |
| Materials | 4 names | 0.63 | MP, FCX, SCCO, CLF |
| Data-center hardware | 1 names | 0.71 | VRT |
| AI data-center power | 3 names | 0.57 | WULF, IREN, KEEL |
| Distributed power & solar | 2 names | 0.71 | BE, FSLR |
| Robotics | 1 names | 0.65 | ISRG |
Open predictions — sizing
Relative size weights from each call's edge (probability above a coin flip), with the implied move and whether the call runs with or against recent price drift. Relative + heuristic — trust it only as far as the calibration page eventually proves the calls.
| Ticker | Call | Prob | Implied move | vs recent drift | Rel. size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEEL | ▼ $4.50 | 62% | -10.4% | contrarian (+6.7% 10d) | 11% |
| PWR | ▲ $760.00 | 60% | +3.6% | contrarian (-3.9% 10d) | 9% |
| CEG | ▲ $300.00 | 58% | +3.9% | contrarian (-13.3% 10d) | 7% |
| VST | ▲ $164.50 | 58% | +2.7% | contrarian (-4.8% 10d) | 7% |
| VRT | ▲ $345.00 | 58% | +5.6% | contrarian (-8.2% 10d) | 7% |
| FSLR | ▲ $325.00 | 57% | +5.9% | momentum (+8.2% 10d) | 6% |
| ETN | ▲ $430.00 | 57% | +2.9% | momentum (+1.2% 10d) | 6% |
| ISRG | ▲ $445.00 | 57% | +4.1% | contrarian (-3.7% 10d) | 6% |
| FCX | ▼ $59.00 | 56% | -6.3% | contrarian (+2.2% 10d) | 6% |
| TLN | ▲ $409.99 | 55% | +9.3% | contrarian (-2.1% 10d) | 5% |
| LEU | ▲ $205.00 | 55% | +7.7% | contrarian (-9.8% 10d) | 5% |
| SCCO | ▲ $210.00 | 55% | +4.8% | contrarian (-3.7% 10d) | 5% |
| CLF | ▼ $12.50 | 55% | -15.3% | contrarian (+20.5% 10d) | 5% |
| MP | ▲ $74.00 | 54% | +6.8% | contrarian (-8.2% 10d) | 4% |
| BE | ▲ $330.00 | 54% | +8.9% | contrarian (-12.9% 10d) | 4% |
| GEV | ▲ $1060.00 | 53% | +2.7% | contrarian (-10.1% 10d) | 3% |
| WULF | ▲ $29.50 | 52% | +11.7% | momentum (+5.2% 10d) | 2% |
| IREN | ▲ $72.00 | 52% | +12.5% | contrarian (-4.4% 10d) | 2% |